It was Hurricane Katrina’s 28-foot storm surge that overwhelmed the levees around New Orleans in 2005 and caused the vast majority of deaths. And it was the combination of storm surge and high tide that led to Hurricane Sandy’s inundation of coastal New York and New Jersey in 2012-flooding that could be as much as 17 times more frequent in the area’s coastal regions by 2100, according to one study. Storm surge and winds can also increase the destructiveness of waves, causing them to get bigger and penetrate further inland. According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), waves of just 1.5 feet have been seen to cause significant damage to coastal structures. As ocean temperatures rise and the world’s glaciers and ice sheets melt (phenomena exacerbated by climate change), global sea levels are rising. Our oceans are approximately seven to eight inches higher than they were in 1900 (with about three of those inches added since 1993 alone)-a rate of rise per century greater than for any other century in at least the past 2,000 years.

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However, although a significant negative trend in global mortality rate was seen across the whole analysis period (1960-2013), the rate for the most recent period (1990-2010) did not show a statistically significant trend (Supplementary Table S1). This result highlights the importance of the analysis period, as well as uncertainties, when calculating flood vulnerability. The long-term trend in loss rate varies between different income levels, due to the balance between improvements in flood mitigation measures and increases in assets in flood-prone regions associated with economic growth (in particular in developing countries). 20%) in mortality rate; however, the increase or decrease in mortality rate varies across regions. This means that the effect of changes in population distribution on flood vulnerability is not so simple, and hence future flood exposure may be under- or overestimated when only future projected population data is used without considering spatial changes in population density. Modelled flood exposure (the number of people or the value of assets potentially affected by flooding) at 5′ × 5′ (approximately 10 km × 10 km at the equator) was calculated using a global river and inundation model, the Catchment-based Macro-scale Floodplain model (CaMa-Flood)26 from 1960 to 2013. Daily runoff input to CaMa-Flood was obtained from a land surface model, the Minimal Advanced Treatments of Surface Integration and Runoff model, which includes a representation of water table dynamics (MATSIRO-GW)37,38 at 1.0° × 1.0° resolution, forced by 3-hourly meteorological forcing data based on the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA55) corrected with observed climate variables (Iizumi et al., prep).

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